On February 1st the National Restaurant Association issued a report that included forecasts for 2022 and the “new normal” eateries face as the nation attempts to move away from COVID. The report provided the following industry insights:
- Industry sales are anticipated to reach $898 billion in 2022
- Foodservice jobs will likely grow by 400,000, for total industry employment of 14.9 million
- 2022 will not be normal for multiple reasons, including food, labor, and occupancy costs, which will be elevated, all of which will impact industry profits
- 96% of operators experienced supply delays or shortages of key food or beverage items, starting in 2021 and likely to continue
- 51% of adult consumers stated that they aren’t eating as often as they would like, an increase of 6% from pre-pandemic levels
- 70% of eateries state that they are not adequately staffed to serve customers
- 50% of operators believe that hiring and retaining staff will be their greatest challenge in 2022
- The industry anticipates adding 200,000 jobs per year for the next decade
- 75% of operators plan to devote more resources to recruiting and retaining employees
- Operators plan to reduce their menu offerings and work to improve the quality of take-out and delivery food products
- 88% of consumers stated that they would be likely try take-out or delivery options if restaurants would use packaging that helps the food maintain the same temperature, taste, and quality as when it’s served in the restaurant
- Technology advances will continue to help the industry, with fully 80% of members stating that their use of technology helps to give them a competitive advantage
- Many operators will expand online ordering, reservations, mobile payment, or delivery management, along with back-of-the-house technology
- Consumers also prefer technology where it doesn’t diminish hospitality
- Outdoor dining is also favored by many consumers, and 40% indicate that they would select eateries with such options over those that do not have it
- To-go alcohol sales are also popular with consumers
- 54% of adult consumers say that takeout or delivery food is essential to their lifestyles, including 72% of millennials and 66% of Gen Z
- 50% of operators think the availability of sidewalk, parking lot, or street seating will become more common during 2022
- 70% of Gen Zs and 62% of millennials stated that to-go alcohol along with take-out or delivery orders would make them more likely to choose one eatery over another without these options
As with many other surveys and data dumps, the results for this critical industry are mixed at best. For those operators that have successfully pivoted during the pandemic and those that continue to do so, 2022 should be OK, but for those that remained viable only due to federal support programs, the coming year will not be a return to “happy days”.
Article thanks to Mike Austin of the VASBDC network.